November 2018 mortgage rates forecast (FHA, VA, USDA, Conventional)
Tim Lucas The Mortgage Reports Contributor
October 25, 2018
Mortgage rates forecast for November 2018
Mortgage rates are rising – as if trying to reach 5% predictions cast at the beginning of 2018. As we head toward 2019, the five-percent mortgage is imminent and is indeed already a reality for many applicants. It’s a big psychological barrier, but perhaps not a financial one.
The difference between 4.875% and 5% is less than $20 per month on the average mortgage size. Plus, as rates rise, home prices often fall. Buyers may not need to make sky-high offers to get a home. There’s good news for refinance shoppers, too. Lenders are so desperate for business that they are ready to give you the lowest rate possible.
Think today’s market is all doom and gloom because of higher rates? Think again.
Predictions for November and beyond
There is no shortage of market-moving news in November. Developments now will impact your ability to buy or refinance this month and in the remainder of the year.
Rate forecasts at the beginning of the year have pretty much come true. Most major housing and financial authorities predicted rates somewhere between 4.7% and 5.0% for 2018.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate for an ideal candidate jumped to 4.90% before settling back at 4.86% at the end of October. That’s even higher than the rough 4.75% you get when you average predictions from seven agencies like Realtor.com and the National Association of Home Builders.
The good news is that we are not very likely to see any more huge jumps for the remainder of the year if forecasts are accurate. But, we are very likely to see a gradual increase going into January 2019, starting the year in the high 4s or even low 5s.
Been looking for a good rate on a refinance or home purchase? Now might be the time to lock.
Baby boomers are still moving to Arizona to retire, despite predictions they wouldn’t.
Members of the huge demographic group have vowed they wouldn’t spend their leisure years the way their parents did. But census data and new rankings show they are ending up in many of the same states, and some of the same neighborhoods.
Arizona is behind only Florida for drawing the most retirees, according to a recent analysis of Census data. And five Valley cities made the list of top 10 metro areas drawing the most new residents who are in their 60s or older. But unlike prior generations focused on golf, the latest generation of retirees wants hiking, friendly neighbors and a good deal.
FIRST CAME SUN CITY AND GOLF
Phoenix began to draw retirees in droves when Del E. Webb opened the first Sun City on the city’s western edge in 1960. That original Sun City is still drawing buyers, but so are newer sun cities, Trilogy communities and other new developments that offer something different than the golf cart, lights off at 8 p.m. lifestyle.
“As baby boomers venture into retirement, they’re not looking to just move to another house,” said Jeff McQueen, president of Shea Home’s Trilogy division, which has four active-adult communities in Arizona, including it’s newest Trilogy at Verde River. He said Trilogy’s survey of baby boomers show they have friends moving away, and they want to move to a new place where they’ll know their neighbors and can have an outdoor lifestyle beyond just golf. Hiking is now a top amenity baby boomers want in Arizona communities.
WHY AND WHERE ARIZONA LOOKS GOOD TO BOOMERS
Sunshine, low taxes and an affordable lifestyle are the state’s top draws for many baby boomers ready to slow down a bit, housing analysts say. Arizona is second in the nation for drawing the most new retirees, an analysis of the latest census data from financial research website SmartAsset shows. Arizona grew by a net 28,614 residents older than 60 in 2016 up from 27,576 in 2015.
Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Gilbert, Surprise and Peoria each drew more than 1,000 new retiree residents during 2016, the research shows. Metropolitan Phoenix and Arizona always rank well on ratings for retirees and active-adult communities. And there are a lot of lists. Where baby boomers decide to live is a big-money proposition for builders and state economies.
SOME OF THE TOP PLACES TO RETIRE
Nine Arizona communities ranked on 55place.com’s new list of the top 55 Active Adult Communities. That’s second to only Florida, too. The list uses several sources on sales, census, crime, construction time, homeowners associations and amenities for the ranking.